THE IMPERFECTIONS OF DEMOCRACY
Of all the forms of government, democracy is deemed the best, even if it is only by default, when all other forms attempted had been much worse. In contrast to dictatorships, fascism, communism or other forms of totalitarianism, democracy provides citizens an avenue to express disagreements with the government, campaign for change in government policies, and if all else fails, vote to change the government at the next election. Yet, as eloquently as this idea was put forward famously by Winston Churchill in 1947, democracy does have serious problems:
1. Democracy is rule by the people. Operationally, since democratic outcomes are determined by voting, rule by the people actually means rule by the majority. The trouble is: the majority are often uninformed, ignorant, impressionable, sentimental or irrational. It is only the highly intelligent or technically competent few who are able to make objective judgments about a country's affairs. So, accordingly, democratic outcomes and their resultant policies may not serve the interests of all citizens or the future of the country. When the rightness of political judgement is not dependent on the number of people subscribing to it but the inherent merits of each case, the sacredness of 'the will of the people' becomes questionable.
2. If the majority are driven by their whims and self-interest, the security and economic prospects of the country may be neglected and the national reserve may be squandered.
3. Politicians often compete by using public relations and personal appeals, playing on the emotions or feelings of voters and may win not by their competence and suitability, but by mere tactics and charisma.
4. In seeking popularity and votes, politicians in a democracy have a tendency to give in to the pressure, lobby or advocacy groups. Such heightened political activism often leads to excessive public spending and the multiplication of laws and regulations.
5. Depending on the mood of the majority, their voting decisions can result in frequent changes in the government and their policies leading to political instability and unpredictability. In fact, mere threats from noisy protesters can pressurize Governments into reversing policies such that economic growth may be hindered.
6. Rule by the majority often means the persecution, deprivation or discrimination of some social, racial, religious or economic groups.
7. Though, in theory, we can vote for whoever we want in an election, in reality, our choices are necessarily limited. The field of candidates or political parties is often small as only a few political players are rich, strong or experienced enough to organize viable political campaigns.
8. Often, political over-competitiveness in democracies can lead to violence, turbulence, national paralysis and disunity, damage to property and loss of lives; result in suspension of the democratic process itself, and ending up as rule of the mob or in a military dictatorship. Presently, Thailand is a case in point.
9. The concept of open political competition is premised on a form of moral relativism, whereby the rightness or wrongness of any policy has no concrete basis, but becomes a matter of majority opinion. In such a society, trust and respect become scarce commodities; and political disputes can become endless and irresolvable.
10. Because political power cannot be guaranteed beyond the next election, political players can become susceptible to opportunistic measures and short-term thinking.
11. As elections are the sole determinants of power in a democracy, there is a temptation for politicians to become prone to corruption, favoritism, partisanism, unfair policies or even outright election fraud.
So, before we continue to hold democracy to be the holy grail in the political organization of human societies, we should have a less reverential re-evaluation of it.
Thursday, 29 May 2014
Friday, 18 April 2014
HOW TO MAKE GOOD DECISIONS
The decisions you make in life and the way you made them are the keys to your happiness. So, it is most crucial to learn this most important of all life skills.
I have developed an easy ABC method to simplify the process for you.
A = Analyze
It is essential to think before making any decision. To avoid over-analysis or analysis paralysis, we should restrict ourselves to only 2 principles when analyzing our choices:
1. Satisfy, not maximize. Strive to achieve a good enough or adequate result or outcome, not the best possible one.
2. Know your priority. Make the decision that will satisfy your main objective, not those that may serve other purposes.
B = Blink
Trust your first impression, your instinct or intuition and your past experience of having made successful decisions under similar circumstances.
C = Create insights
Deliberately think in a contrarian, unconventional or alternative way to trigger spontaneous and sudden moments of total clarity while considering your options.
Practical Execution of the ABC Decision-making Process
When you use each of these 'A', 'B' and 'C' elements, you may find that the choice you make after each stage may be contradictory or inconsistent with those after the other stages. When that happens, it only means that your decision-making process is still incomplete.
You will know that you have made the right choice only when it can consistently satisfy the requirements of all three 'A', 'B' and 'C' stages at the same time.
The decisions you make in life and the way you made them are the keys to your happiness. So, it is most crucial to learn this most important of all life skills.
I have developed an easy ABC method to simplify the process for you.
A = Analyze
It is essential to think before making any decision. To avoid over-analysis or analysis paralysis, we should restrict ourselves to only 2 principles when analyzing our choices:
1. Satisfy, not maximize. Strive to achieve a good enough or adequate result or outcome, not the best possible one.
2. Know your priority. Make the decision that will satisfy your main objective, not those that may serve other purposes.
B = Blink
Trust your first impression, your instinct or intuition and your past experience of having made successful decisions under similar circumstances.
C = Create insights
Deliberately think in a contrarian, unconventional or alternative way to trigger spontaneous and sudden moments of total clarity while considering your options.
Practical Execution of the ABC Decision-making Process
When you use each of these 'A', 'B' and 'C' elements, you may find that the choice you make after each stage may be contradictory or inconsistent with those after the other stages. When that happens, it only means that your decision-making process is still incomplete.
You will know that you have made the right choice only when it can consistently satisfy the requirements of all three 'A', 'B' and 'C' stages at the same time.
Tuesday, 25 March 2014
WHAT IS THE REAL RISK OF DYING IN A PLANE CRASH?
As we mourn the victims of the ill-fated MH370, let's re-examine the real mortal risk of flying.
If you look at the following statistics:
*Odds of being on an airline flight which results in at least one fatality with 78 major world airlines:
1 in 3.4 million.
*Odds of being killed on a single airline flight with 78 major world airlines:
1 in 4.7 million.
*Source: OAG Aviation & PlaneCrashInfo.com accident database, 20 years of data (1993 - 2012).
It seems silly to fear flying, but if you were a passenger on MH370, on hindsight, your odds of dying in a plane crash was 1 in 1, that is, 100%. So, there is a paradox in drawing conclusions from the general to apply to the particular.
I'm highly suspicious of official statistics. The odds of 1 in 4.7 million is only valid if you are a passenger of 4.7 million flights. If you are a passenger of only 1 flight, your odds of dying is either 0 in 1 or 1 in 1.
So, I think the statistic of 1 in 4.7 million is a huge lie. The historical risk of any 1 passenger dying in any flight anywhere in the world over the last 20 years is, yes, 1 in 4.7 million. But you are you. You are not any passenger in the world. That statistic is not meaningful if, while you are boarding your plane you are wondering whether this trip is going to be your last or not. If the odds of 1 in 4.7 million is correct, your chance of dying on any plane trip is only 0.00002128%, which is minuscule or as good as zero. So, no one should ever die from plane crashes at all! Yet, people in the thousands did perish while flying. What can account for this jump from 0.00002128% to 100% when you board ill-fated planes?
Let's look at it my way.
Consider this very rough approximation: if we take an average 50 year-old passenger taking his 60th flight of his life (2 flights a year since age 20), he can either survive or die during this trip. So, empirically, if his plane crashes and he dies, his risk was factually 1 in 60 which is a highly significant 1.67%.
If really such statistics existed: what is the average number of flights real air crash victims had taken before they died? That is the real odds of dying while flying (for them)! I bet it is not far from 1 in 60.
Of course, this only applies to those who are 'fated' to die in an air crash. The problem is, you can't know beforehand whether you are so fated or not. But, my point is, the odds for dying in an air crash is far higher than the oft-quoted 1 in 4.7 million figure!
It is good to remember what you read here when you are planning your next holiday overseas.
Monday, 10 March 2014
Monday, 3 March 2014
BEGINNINGS
From The Big Bang To Human Beings
1. BEGINNING OF THE UNIVERSE
About 14 billion years ago, all matter and energy were compressed in a dime-sized area of infinite density called a singularity. There was no time, no space and no natural physical laws. In a super-fast smooth and silent expansion paradoxically called The Big Bang, the universe was created.
1 second after the Big Bang, atomic nuclei of hydrogen and helium began to form. This lasted about 3 minutes. 1 million years later, stable hydrogen atoms form and 100 million years later, the first star began to shine.
90% of all matter is unseen dark matter which provided the gravity that is required to form galaxies; and 75% of all energy is dark energy which is causing the continuing acceleration in the universe's expansion.
2. BEGINNING OF THE GALAXIES
A galaxy is a cluster of stars, dust and gas held together by gravity, measuring from thousands to hundreds of thousands of light-years across (one light-year is about 9.46 trillion km). The first galaxies formed about 2 billion years after the Big Bang and most were formed by 7 billion years. There are about 125 billion galaxies.
Our Sun is one of 100 billion stars in our Milky Way galaxy which is a spiral galaxy with a huge black hole at its center. Our Milky Way galaxy is just one of 30-odd galaxies in the Local Group.
3. BEGINNING OF A STAR
A nebula is a cloud of dust and gas in space and when disturbed from within, collapses into a ball of gas called a protostar. As its hotness increases, thermonuclear fusion turn hydrogen into helium causing radiation of heat and light.
As the star ages, its hydrogen fuel is used up and it begins to cool, swell and become a red giant. Later, its outer layers begin to drift away leaving behind a small, hot, dense and luminous white dwarf. But the red giant of the biggest stars will instead undergo a supernova explosion leaving a dense core called a neutron star while causing shockwaves that trigger the birth of new stars. Sometimes, the shrinking core spins and emits radiowaves causing the appearance of a pulsar. A neutron star may shrink further into a black hole.
4. BEGINNING OF OUR SUN
Our Sun is a middle-aged star at about 30,000 light-years from the core of the Milky Way galaxy, on the spiral arm in the Orion constellation. From a cloud of cosmic dust which was battered by shockwaves of a supernova, it was formed about 4.57 billion years ago. It has been estimated that its hydrogen fuel will run out in 1.5 billion years, will swell to become a red giant while destroying the Earth and other inner planets in 5 billion years, and eventually become a white dwarf.
5. BEGINNING OF THE EARTH
Earth was created more than 4.5 billion years ago shortly after the formation of our Sun. Only a few tens of millions of years later, it collided with possibly another planet shearing off material into space which was later to become the moon. For its first 500 million years, it was in a molten state whereby under the influence of gravity, heavier elements sank to its core and the lighter elements floated to its surface. About 4.1 billion years ago, a crust formed when increased gravity attracted gases, including water vapor, to its surface. Between 4.1 to 3.8 billion years ago, it underwent the Late Heavy Bombardment period when it was battered by meteoroids, asteroids and comets which added mass to it.
6. BEGINNING OF LIFE
Water which is an absolute prerequisite for life was present together with an atmosphere of nitrogen, carbon dioxide and hydrogen 3.8 billion years ago. Life on Earth began 3.5 billion years ago when clay crystals, formed from silicates, trapped carbon, hydrogen and nitrogen molecules to their surfaces, modifying them and allowing them to free themselves from the clay environment. Thus freed, they replicate independently and assemble themselves into nucleotides which joined together to form DNA. Self-replication of DNA and RNA and through catalysis by enzymes formed amino acids which also joined to form proteins. Another essential step was the formation of a primitive cell wall that encapsulated and kept the polymers together.
Alternative theories include the formation of the primordial soup in niches on the ocean floor called hydrothermal vents and the possibility of life on Earth starting after seeding with microbes from space.
7. BEGINNING OF HUMANS
The earliest human ancestor skull of the bipedal species Sabelanthropus tobadensis ('Toumai') was discovered in Chad in 2001-2002 and was dated to be 7 million years old. A 5.8 million year-old fossil of a Orrorin tugenesis species, also upright-walking, was found in northern Kenya in 1974.
A 3 million year-old almost complete skeleton of the species Australopithcus afarensis ('Lucy') was uncovered in Ethiopia in 1974. This species not only walked on 2 legs, it had human teeth, though it still had a smaller brain than us. Yet, in 1964, the 2 million year-old larger-brained and tool-using Homo habilis ('Handy Man") which possessed opposing thumbs was discovered in Tanzania.
Next, Homo erectus ('Upright Man') was able to control fire and cook his food from 2 million to 200,000 years ago. The Homo sapiens species ('Wise Man') found in Ethiopia walked the earth between 200,000 to 150,000 years ago used their brains to develop language and culture, and had a much less ape-like face. We are the direct descendants of the Cro-Magnon Man of the Homo sapiens sapiens species who lived 40,000 to 10,000 years ago.
The Neanderthal Man (Homo Neanderthalis) was our extinct cousin species which vanished 30,000 years ago.
8. NEXT JOURNEY
It took us 14 billion years to get from Big Bang to Homo sapiens sapiens. Where do we go from here?
From The Big Bang To Human Beings
1. BEGINNING OF THE UNIVERSE
About 14 billion years ago, all matter and energy were compressed in a dime-sized area of infinite density called a singularity. There was no time, no space and no natural physical laws. In a super-fast smooth and silent expansion paradoxically called The Big Bang, the universe was created.
1 second after the Big Bang, atomic nuclei of hydrogen and helium began to form. This lasted about 3 minutes. 1 million years later, stable hydrogen atoms form and 100 million years later, the first star began to shine.
90% of all matter is unseen dark matter which provided the gravity that is required to form galaxies; and 75% of all energy is dark energy which is causing the continuing acceleration in the universe's expansion.
2. BEGINNING OF THE GALAXIES
A galaxy is a cluster of stars, dust and gas held together by gravity, measuring from thousands to hundreds of thousands of light-years across (one light-year is about 9.46 trillion km). The first galaxies formed about 2 billion years after the Big Bang and most were formed by 7 billion years. There are about 125 billion galaxies.
Our Sun is one of 100 billion stars in our Milky Way galaxy which is a spiral galaxy with a huge black hole at its center. Our Milky Way galaxy is just one of 30-odd galaxies in the Local Group.
3. BEGINNING OF A STAR
A nebula is a cloud of dust and gas in space and when disturbed from within, collapses into a ball of gas called a protostar. As its hotness increases, thermonuclear fusion turn hydrogen into helium causing radiation of heat and light.
As the star ages, its hydrogen fuel is used up and it begins to cool, swell and become a red giant. Later, its outer layers begin to drift away leaving behind a small, hot, dense and luminous white dwarf. But the red giant of the biggest stars will instead undergo a supernova explosion leaving a dense core called a neutron star while causing shockwaves that trigger the birth of new stars. Sometimes, the shrinking core spins and emits radiowaves causing the appearance of a pulsar. A neutron star may shrink further into a black hole.
4. BEGINNING OF OUR SUN
Our Sun is a middle-aged star at about 30,000 light-years from the core of the Milky Way galaxy, on the spiral arm in the Orion constellation. From a cloud of cosmic dust which was battered by shockwaves of a supernova, it was formed about 4.57 billion years ago. It has been estimated that its hydrogen fuel will run out in 1.5 billion years, will swell to become a red giant while destroying the Earth and other inner planets in 5 billion years, and eventually become a white dwarf.
5. BEGINNING OF THE EARTH
Earth was created more than 4.5 billion years ago shortly after the formation of our Sun. Only a few tens of millions of years later, it collided with possibly another planet shearing off material into space which was later to become the moon. For its first 500 million years, it was in a molten state whereby under the influence of gravity, heavier elements sank to its core and the lighter elements floated to its surface. About 4.1 billion years ago, a crust formed when increased gravity attracted gases, including water vapor, to its surface. Between 4.1 to 3.8 billion years ago, it underwent the Late Heavy Bombardment period when it was battered by meteoroids, asteroids and comets which added mass to it.
6. BEGINNING OF LIFE
Water which is an absolute prerequisite for life was present together with an atmosphere of nitrogen, carbon dioxide and hydrogen 3.8 billion years ago. Life on Earth began 3.5 billion years ago when clay crystals, formed from silicates, trapped carbon, hydrogen and nitrogen molecules to their surfaces, modifying them and allowing them to free themselves from the clay environment. Thus freed, they replicate independently and assemble themselves into nucleotides which joined together to form DNA. Self-replication of DNA and RNA and through catalysis by enzymes formed amino acids which also joined to form proteins. Another essential step was the formation of a primitive cell wall that encapsulated and kept the polymers together.
Alternative theories include the formation of the primordial soup in niches on the ocean floor called hydrothermal vents and the possibility of life on Earth starting after seeding with microbes from space.
7. BEGINNING OF HUMANS
The earliest human ancestor skull of the bipedal species Sabelanthropus tobadensis ('Toumai') was discovered in Chad in 2001-2002 and was dated to be 7 million years old. A 5.8 million year-old fossil of a Orrorin tugenesis species, also upright-walking, was found in northern Kenya in 1974.
A 3 million year-old almost complete skeleton of the species Australopithcus afarensis ('Lucy') was uncovered in Ethiopia in 1974. This species not only walked on 2 legs, it had human teeth, though it still had a smaller brain than us. Yet, in 1964, the 2 million year-old larger-brained and tool-using Homo habilis ('Handy Man") which possessed opposing thumbs was discovered in Tanzania.
Next, Homo erectus ('Upright Man') was able to control fire and cook his food from 2 million to 200,000 years ago. The Homo sapiens species ('Wise Man') found in Ethiopia walked the earth between 200,000 to 150,000 years ago used their brains to develop language and culture, and had a much less ape-like face. We are the direct descendants of the Cro-Magnon Man of the Homo sapiens sapiens species who lived 40,000 to 10,000 years ago.
The Neanderthal Man (Homo Neanderthalis) was our extinct cousin species which vanished 30,000 years ago.
8. NEXT JOURNEY
It took us 14 billion years to get from Big Bang to Homo sapiens sapiens. Where do we go from here?
Friday, 14 February 2014
ODE TO ST. VALENTINE
Today, fourteenth, February,
The world will put aside all rivalry,
When we pay the highest tribute,
To mankind's noblest attribute.
As we celebrate our mutual passion,
It should come to our attention,
The origin of this great story of love,
A gift bestowed from heaven above.
It started with Valentinus, the Saint,
Whose reputation the Romans taint.
For fulfilling his religious function,
He endured prison and persecution.
Knowing his jailor's daughter's blind,
All he wanted was to be kind.
So, by his miracle, the girl was healed,
But, in so doing, his fate was sealed.
On the night before his beheading,
His legend was set in writing.
In a farewell note so fine,
He signed: "From Your Valentine!"
So, as we celebrate his death today,
To our appreciation there's no delay,
For this Saint and God's servant,
This day forever, we'll be observant!
Tuesday, 4 February 2014
A DEDICATION TO MY DEAR FATHER
 | |||
| 1925 - 2014 |
My dear loving and well-loved dad,
You had lived so cleanly like a fine lad.
You had lived so cleanly like a fine lad.
Though now we're all naturally sad,
Admiration for you comforts us a tad.
Thanks for everything we ever had.
Your loyalty to us a constant, not a fad.
You used to work so hard, as if mad.
That's why our lives were never bad.
Writing your quiet story on my iPad,
It's like a great novel still unread.
Your life's fullness makes me glad,
To it, there's nothing more I could add!
Monday, 27 January 2014
ANTON CASEY CASE: A RASHOMON ANALYSIS
Prologue
The Rashomon effect refers to contradictory interpretations of a common event by different people.
Part One:
Anton Casey:
Picture 1 - "Daddy, where is your car & who are all these poor people?" (apparently asked by his son while traveling on an MRT train)
Picture 2 - "Ahhhhhhhh reunited with my baby. Normal service can resume, once I have washed the stench of public transport off me FFS!" (his son pictured waving from his silver Porsche)
Worst possible interpretation: A deliberate contemptuous insult calculated to belittle poor people in Singapore by an arrogant white foreigner whose bad behavior followed the precedents set by Oliver Desbarres, Juerg Buergin and Robert Stephen Dahlberg.
Best possible interpretation: An unfortunate and unfunny joke gone horribly wrong because his bad judgement had prevented him from realizing that Singaporeans will not be able to 'get' the joke due to cultural differences.
Part Two:
What followed were widespread online condemnations, counter-insults, threats to him and his family, loss of his job, a quick retreat into hiding in Perth and being mocked in a budget airline advertisement.
Worst possible interpretation: Singapore society has become xenophobic, has a hair-trigger climate of political correctness, is highly intolerant of criticism and tends to react disproportionately to the slightest hint of disrespect by exacting a very malevolent brand of vindictiveness. We lack a sense of humor and by gloating and celebrating the punishment of the fallen, we have collectively shown our deficit in kindness, graciousness and empathy.
Best possible interpretation: As a society, we have matured and become united in our national spirit such that when we sense that our more disadvantaged members are being attacked, our collective empathy for them drives us to respond in a stout manner. It is to send a message that guests in our country who misbehave are never welcome. Perhaps, in retrospect, we should try to cultivate a more forgiving spirit and be more generous and magnanimous in our victory over our naysayers.
Epilogue
It would be most helpful if we can assume the Best Possible Interpretations of the actions of both parties in this affair.
Hopefully, this will lead to healing and closure to this unpleasant episode.
Prologue
The Rashomon effect refers to contradictory interpretations of a common event by different people.
Part One:
Anton Casey:
Picture 1 - "Daddy, where is your car & who are all these poor people?" (apparently asked by his son while traveling on an MRT train)
Picture 2 - "Ahhhhhhhh reunited with my baby. Normal service can resume, once I have washed the stench of public transport off me FFS!" (his son pictured waving from his silver Porsche)
Worst possible interpretation: A deliberate contemptuous insult calculated to belittle poor people in Singapore by an arrogant white foreigner whose bad behavior followed the precedents set by Oliver Desbarres, Juerg Buergin and Robert Stephen Dahlberg.
Best possible interpretation: An unfortunate and unfunny joke gone horribly wrong because his bad judgement had prevented him from realizing that Singaporeans will not be able to 'get' the joke due to cultural differences.
Part Two:
What followed were widespread online condemnations, counter-insults, threats to him and his family, loss of his job, a quick retreat into hiding in Perth and being mocked in a budget airline advertisement.
Worst possible interpretation: Singapore society has become xenophobic, has a hair-trigger climate of political correctness, is highly intolerant of criticism and tends to react disproportionately to the slightest hint of disrespect by exacting a very malevolent brand of vindictiveness. We lack a sense of humor and by gloating and celebrating the punishment of the fallen, we have collectively shown our deficit in kindness, graciousness and empathy.
Best possible interpretation: As a society, we have matured and become united in our national spirit such that when we sense that our more disadvantaged members are being attacked, our collective empathy for them drives us to respond in a stout manner. It is to send a message that guests in our country who misbehave are never welcome. Perhaps, in retrospect, we should try to cultivate a more forgiving spirit and be more generous and magnanimous in our victory over our naysayers.
Epilogue
It would be most helpful if we can assume the Best Possible Interpretations of the actions of both parties in this affair.
Hopefully, this will lead to healing and closure to this unpleasant episode.
Saturday, 18 January 2014
HAPPY BIRTHDAY MUHAMMAD ALI!
17 January 1942
17 January 1942
Happy birthday, my handsome guy!
O, how you floated like a butterfly,
But your punches stung like a bee.
That's what really impressed me.
With every solid punch you throw,
Ever weaker Frazier were to grow.
Even Foreman couldn't cope,
With your tactic "Rope-a-Dope"!
As every opponent was made to flee,
A great champion you'll always be.
We'll remember you just like this,
Cos' you defined what greatness is.
Tuesday, 31 December 2013
AN UNFITTING TRIBUTE TO THE NEW YEAR
(Inspired by last night's alcohol)
(Inspired by last night's alcohol)
Only now waking up at noon,
Realizing 2014 had come too soon.
Literally caught with my pants down,
I know I'm just New Year's clown.
Like being part of a bad cartoon,
It's even hard acting like a goon.
So, I stumble my way into town,
Totally clueless like Charlie Brown.
Acting like I'm over the moon.
When I'm a grouch in a lampoon,
Stubbornly wearing 2013's gown,
While missing the new year's crown!
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