INNOCENT CHILD
Innocent child,
Running wild
Round corners loose or tight,
Falling left or right.
Full of energy and guile,
Under skies stormy or mild,
Navigating the night,
Yet never feel the fright.
Taking a breather during the lull
And a second to mull.
For the prize is within sight,
If we pull with all our might.
Let’s return to the hull,
If there’s too much to cull.
The future’s burning bright.
2022 is at a comfortable height.
ROCK OR BUST!
I know I should
And I would,
If I could.
But it’ll be no good,
If my thoughts have no food.
I know I ought
To use the time we bought,
To continue the battle we fought.
So, dispel the thought
That things will come to nought.
I know I must,
Have my eyes cleared of dust,
My will freed from rust
And faith restored by trust.
Henceforth, it’s rock or bust!
THE CHASE OF THE WILD GOOSE
Now, this ugliness of times recent
Is really a ghost grossly indecent,
Of the jumping of the many
On the one that they so choose
For the chase of the wild goose.
For the making of us dependent
On the habit of one bad moment
And the decorated guilt to carry
On grounds of sand so loose
As to rival the laxity of their noose.
It is the object of this lesson
To temper the feeling and passion
Of any Tom, Dick and Harry.
In the book, it’s the oldest ruse,
A trick they never fear to overuse.
Never mind the acts of reason,
And the semblance of a sober nation,
There is much political tomfoolery
In a game both sides can’t afford to lose;
Pursuing, not a wild, but a golden goose.
AW GEE!
I opened my eyes but I don’t see
Anything vaguely familiar to me.
I wonder if it happens to everybody,
But this world is no longer what it used to be.
You and I used to agree
But conversation has become tragedy,
No more tolerance or generosity.
Will friendship return to what it used to be?
I don’t know if I’m really me.
I can’t recognise my self and my body,
I guess this is the ultimate uncertainty.
I’m less than half the person I used to be.
Yet, all you can say is: “Aw gee!
Are you just looking for sympathy?
For this or any other query,
It should be referred to the Committee!”
DECONSTRUCTING RICHARD MILLE "WATCHES"
FEEDBACK TO MOH
3 IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
(A) Is COVID-19 a severe illness?
(B) Where is the real worry?
(C) What new steps can we take?
(A) This seems like an imprudent question to ask given the apparent widespread and worldwide casualties and deaths since early 2020. But, to answer this question honestly and objectively, we need to put things in perspective. How do we measure severity? Is it by the number of persons infected? By the number of people hospitalised or needing oxygen therapy? Or by the numbers who died?
Here, in Singapore, after 21 months of the Pandemic, we are currently seeing the highest number of “cases” (defined as anyone with a positive PCR Test) and highest number of daily deaths. But official Government statistics consistently as of 30 Sep 2021, 12pm, over the 28 days immediately prior to reporting, of the infected individuals, 98.1% have mild or no symptoms, 1.6% requires oxygen supplementation, 0.2% requires ICU care, and 0.1% has died. So, yes, the “cases” are rising, but the proportion needing special hospital care or end up dying is really minuscule at 1.9% of cases. So, perhaps thanks to our high vaccination rate, the vast proportion of the infected can actually be safely treated as outpatients like any common respiratory illness and therefore there is no need to close down large parts of business, educational or social activities to cope with the outbreak.
Of course, every death is one death too many and we should try our very best to prevent it. But, it is a fact of life that people DO die from respiratory illnesses. If pro-rated, so far, Covid-19 has killed 54-55 residents per 12 months. This is actually very low compared with the 588 – 844 annual fatalities associated with Influenza. If we desire to lower these numbers, our efforts should be targeted at those elderly with significant chronic illness either by enforced social distancing and vaccination, prophylactic and early treatments like subcutaneous monoclonal antibodies, early hospitalisation and close monitoring, not just for Covid-19, but for any respiratory illness in the future that may cause significant mortality.
Furthermore, as of 29 Sep, 82% of our population have completed their full regimen/received 2 doses of vaccines. Nothing much more can be done for the non-elderly, low-risk sector of the population to further lower their risk.
So, I think It is reasonable to say that Covid-19 is not a particularly severe respiratory illness to warrant a pessimistic outlook for the near future.
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(B) Even so, if 82% of the population are now fully vaccinated and, as CDC studies show, are 5 times less likely to be infected, 10 times less likely to be hospitalised and 11 times less likely to die, why did cases rise in mid-July and exploded from late August 2021 till there are now 2,909 new cases on 1 October, and why did nearly two-thirds of our total pandemic deaths (66 out of 103) occur in the last 2 months of the 21-month-old outbreak?
So regrettably, there is still cause for worry. But then, where are the problem areas that we need to address? No, our safe management measures like border control, mask mandates, good hand hygiene, controlled unmasked dining-in, pre-event testing, on-line learning, work from home, contact-tracing, quarantine orders and home recovery schemes are all working well. Even without the 3rd booster dose, our vaccines are still able to prevent serious illness, hospitalisation and death. No. What is driving the spikes in cases and death is the nature of the Delta variant whose high transmissibility allows it to find its way to infect more people especially the unvaccinated and its higher virulence will kill more people especially the elderly and the vulnerable. Therefore, there is a need for targeted action.
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(C) Given the almost paradoxical realisation that Covid-19 is not a major society-wide problem, but is a significant problem for a selected sector of the population, let me propose our next steps as follows:
(1) Acknowledge the above facts, the present situation and the futility and aimlessness of routine prospective active detection of asymptomatic infections in low-risk populations.
(2) Declare and clearly define the aim(s) of all future anti-Covid-19 actions.
(3) Empower all low-risk people whether as individuals or as mutually-supportive members of a family to take charge and assume personal responsibility for their own safety measures and if they were to succumb to mild ARI, seek appropriate medical treatment at primary care and jointly decide with the doctor on a practical plan of home isolation till recovery.
(4) The Pandemic Task Force should focus on the high risk group, by defining it, by using technology to conduct routine surveillance, by monitoring, testing, isolating, providing prophylaxis and early treatment and managing their hospitalisation.
(5) With safeguards and the systems (4) in place, Singapore can return to business and return to normal life.
(6) To ensure that the aim(s) in (2) are achieved.
(7) Establish a new template for the public management of large-scale respiratory infections, including seasonal influenza under clearly-defined mortality ceilings or trigger points. This will set the SOP (standard operating procedure) for preventing further disruptions to Singapore’s economy and society by future viral outbreaks.
With this road-map and its tangible steps published for the public, I think it will give everyone more clarity of the path ahead, more certainty and a more positive sense of hope for returning to our normal life soon.
KEEP ON TO HIGHER GROUND
(a pandemic tribute to Stevie Wonder)
Virus, keeps on infecting.
Testers, keep on testing.
Contact tracers, keep on tracing.
Quarantine managers, keep on ordering.
Reporters, keep on reporting.
Ambassadors, keep on enforcing.
Doctors, keep on sending.
Food deliverers, keep on delivering.
People, keep on hiding.
Shoppers, keep on avoiding.
Shopkeepers, keep on sighing.
Economy, keeps on tanking.
Our hands, keep on washing.
Society, keeps on distancing.
Case numbers keep on rising.
Clusters keep on increasing.
Same statistics, keep on remaining.
Patients, keep on dying.
Leaders, keep on doing the same thing.
No wonder we have gone off-roading.
So, are we gonna keep trying?
Are we mere believers, just believing?
Or deep sleepers, just sleeping?
Higher ground, will we be reaching?
WHAT TO MAKE OF OUR PANDEMIC CURVE?
What can be discerned from the shape of the latest wave of local community Covid-19 cases in the pandemic curve?
(1) From the 1 total case on July 11th, it spiked sharply in 9 days to a peak of 182 cases by July 20th, followed by an equally sharp descent to 130 cases 3 days later, only to hover at a near plateau around that number till today’s 131 cases.
(2) The reason why there is a plateau instead of a further decline of total cases is because the great efforts by MOH to control the large and established clusters are met with a corresponding increase in unlinked cases. From the peak on July 20th, over the last 11 days, the halving of linked cases is matched by a doubling of unlinked cases.
(3) This indicates that Covid-19 infections are diffusing and dispersing out from the main clusters and predictable scenarios to sporadic, unforeseen and widely separated localities.
(4) If this trend continues, the great efforts by MOH to test, trace, quarantine and isolate potential cases in order to ring-fence outbreaks will become less and less effective in suppressing case numbers as they are unlikely to keep up with the ever widening diffusion of cases.
(5) With the sharp increase in the number of the very ill Covid-19 patients, those requiring oxygen supplementation (26 people) or those in intensive care units (ICU) (7 people) over the last two weeks, rising from 8 to 33 people, our efforts and strategy appear not to be achieving our objectives in fighting the pandemic. We should remember that our main objectives are firstly, to prevent death and severe illness, secondly, to prevent our health system from being overwhelmed, thirdly, to prevent the high morbidity of widespread infections, and lastly, to allow our economy to recover its vibrancy and our nation to recover her confidence.
(6) It is time to switch gears soon as our vaccination rates especially among the >60s are about to be high enough. Less resources should be spent trying to trace every case of infection especially when they are mild or asymptomatic. More efforts and new initiatives to identify, safeguard and possibly mandatorily vaccinate the elderly, those with co-morbidities and other vulnerable people should be instituted as soon as possible.
97% of ...
Isn’t it a curious thing that the term “97%” seems to jump up at you almost everywhere, all the time?
First, the good news:
97% of the mortality from Covid-19 infection can be prevented by the CoronaVac Covid-19 vaccine.
No wonder:
97% of King County (US) Covid-19 cases were unvaccinated people.
But the bad news is:
97% of Indians are being left poorer by the Covid-19 pandemic.
While:
97% of people say that they want to return to the workplace for some or most of the time when possible.
97% of sports fans will be happy to attend live sport events again in the future
But, this is contradicted by:
97% of office workers want to continue working from home post-pandemic.
Is it because:
97% of office workers feel frustrated at work?
Frustrated by?:
97% of all organisations reporting malware attacks in 2020.
Especially if:
97% of Fortune 500 companies are relying on social media.
And the wide use of apps, like:
97% of TikTok’s user counts are reached through Indian apps.
97% of internet users in Kenya use WhatsApp.
Or is it because:
97% of women aged 18-24 faced sexual harassment?
Of course, we wouldn’t forget the old, familiar one, the original “97%”:
97% of climate scientists “really” do agree that climate change is real and humans are the cause of it.
And some happy consequences when green policies are implemented:
97% of Scotland’s electricity demand in 2020 was met by renewables.
97% reduction of water consumption in electricity generation by the use of wind power and solar energy.
97% of plastic bottles in Norway are recycled.
But yet:
97% of Earth’s land area may no longer be ecologically intact.
Is that why?:
97% of pigs in the US are raised in a factory, not in a traditional farm.
No?
Well, if this long account is too much for your ears, be assured that:
97% of ruptured eardrums heal naturally.
But, there is no comfort in this saddest of news:
97% of traffic for SIA has been dropped in January 2021!
But finally, I think 97% of these 97% claims are wild generalisations that should not be fully believed.
Opinion
SUPERVISED AND ENFORCED UNIVERSAL N95 MASKING AS THE SOLUTION TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Back on 5 February 2020, (https://touch.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2662707927099382&id=100000806023869) I was one of the first people to recognise that Covid-19 can be transmitted asymptomatically and advocated universal masking as a measure to prevent such transmission. After some initial illogical objection from many quarters, universal masking is now widely practised and has become mandatory in many countries.
Fast forward 15 months, it is a sad failure of public policy that this pandemic is still rolling on with a vengeance. Up till today, there are now 158 million cases and 3.3 million deaths despite 310 million people already vaccinated.
There are 4 reasons why many countries are experiencing large spikes in infections in their 3rd or 4th waves:
(1) Vaccinations are not proceeding fast enough.
(2) Consequently, the virus has been allowed time to mutate into dangerous variants that spread faster and become more deadly.
(3) There is a failure to institute adequate masking and social distancing measures as people still congregate for social, religious and political activities.
(4) Masks when worn do not prevent transmission because the masks are poor quality cloth masks or they are not worn properly.
To me, the solution to this pandemic is to mandate the compulsory wearing of N95 masks universally. If worn properly, such a practice will reduce everyone’s exposure to the virus by 99%! This will surely spell the beginning of the end of the pandemic. Last year’s objection based on the excuse of having insufficient supply of N95 masks no longer holds water. The world had 15 months to activate a wartime effort to mass-produce N95 masks for the whole world. If there was enough time, effort and money to introduce the vaccine, why wasn’t there enough time, effort and money for the manufacture of something far simpler and cheaper - the N95 mask?
(NB: I’m not alone in this opinion. Please see https://www.google.com.sg/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/26/n95-masks-safest-next-best-options/%3foutputType=amp)
It’s Truly Labour Day
Are we labouring under a curse?
Or is this just a blip in the universe?
What are we to make of all this?
Can a Higher Being do something, please?
Sojourned on a planet we called our own,
While bitten by a virus we’ve never known,
We’ll have to show that we are really worthy
By taking full charge of our own destiny.
