THE "UNEXPECTED" LANDSLIDE VICTORY OF THE PAP
A result that surprised and puzzled many analysts, but here's why!

Many observers have attributed last night's less-than-expected big PAP turnaround in its aggregated popular vote from 60.1 to 69.9%, a sudden rise of 9.8%, to a variety of reasons:

(1) Singaporeans now fully understand the significance of elections and have come to realize that only the PAP holds the key to future prosperity;

(2) Singaporeans endorse PAP's policies and approve of the Government's performance over the last 4 years in tackling the issues that arose in 2011;

(3) A softening of PAP politics reflected in a change in PAP's outreach strategy into one that is more decentralized, more consultative and less arrogant; one that speaks from the heart rather than from the head; and one that features policies consciously shifting to the left.

(4) WP's performance over the last 4 years had been less than impressive and the widely publicised AHPETC lapses in accounting and governance must have had some effect;

(5) The feel-good factor in the SG50 celebrations this year;

(6) The sympathy factor in the recent demise of our founding father, Mr Lee Kuan Yew;

(7) Voters share PAP's anxiety about our leadership renewal;

(8) Voters voting for PAP by default because of fear of too big a swing to the immature opposition;

(9) Voters worried about the impending gloomy and uncertain global outlook adopt a 'flight to safety' mentality;

(10) The Singaporean voter is intellectually lazy and is not concerned about his rights, social issues like CPF, transport and rich-poor divide; or political issues like accountability, transparency and Parliamentary check and balance. He seems ready to surrender his political rights to paternalistic, political experts who can make all the right decisions for him and his country.

In my view, none of the above reasons fully and logically explains the widespread, island-wide swing towards the PAP. It must be observed that the reason behind it has a generalised and consistent effect on voting behaviour, except that the strength of the WP was able to resist the trend to some degree.

THE ANSWER - FILIAL PIETY

The clue here is that the answer is related to a very significant, one-off event.

Imagine a dying father, who was an expert painter, telling his child to forever preserve and never remove his favourite masterpiece that he had hung in his own house. Though the child may not be interested in painting himself and do not fully appreciate the beauty of that piece of painting on the wall, he readily promised to always treasure that piece of work.

Because of the unique history of Singapore, the relationship between Mr Lee Kuan Yew and the people of Singapore is not one between a leader and a citizenry; but more like a father and a child. So, such a paternalistic relationship is not one that is imposed on the people; but a natural state where both grew into. The dying father in the story is, of course, Mr Lee Kuan Yew; the child is the people of Singapore; and the painting is the PAP. Most people appreciate the fact that Mr Lee brought Singapore from 3rd to 1st world in fifty years, but people forget that the vehicle that he used to do it with was the PAP. PAP is his masterpiece and as long as it is in good shape, Singapore will be in good shape.

In an Asian society like Singapore, a good child's main duty to his father is filial piety, and it is with filial piety that subconsciously, almost the whole society voted to preserve his legacy, especially shortly after his passing. The effect may be strong enough to suppress present grievances and political differences. Just recall the unprecedented outpouring from people of all political stripes during Mr. Lee's wake and funeral.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

So, underlying the unexpected PAP landslide win is a deep collective psychological phenomenon that may not last forever. Indeed, such a fortuitous favour for the PAP may just be a one-off. Come next GE in 2019-2020, the effect may have worn off. So, the PAP must still work hard and the opposition should not feel too disheartened because the trend of the "new normal", though temporarily suppressed, may still be on.

ON THE MORNING OF 12TH SEPTEMBER

Scenario 1

The PAP wins comfortably again and forms the next Government. This time, their popular vote increases because there are no significant issues that the PAP had not addressed satisfactorily since 2011. Life goes on as like before the election.

Scenario 2

As observed and expected by some during the campaigning, the PAP loses more ground but manages to form the next Government with a precarious majority of the popular vote. More than 20 seats went to the opposition with the WP winning handsomely and looks set to entrench themselves as a strong and viable political alternative in the future. More exciting is the complete resurrection of Dr Chee Soon Juan of the SDP who bursts into Parliament with his team scoring the highest percentage of the popular votes among the opposition. It does not surprise many as Dr Chee is seen to have matured into a formidable speech-maker. The political scene now sparkles with the promise of vigorous Parliamentary debates and greater scrutiny and longer deliberations before policies are made.

Scenario 3

A shocking freak result happens in AMK GRC!! The Reform Party won with 50.2% of the votes. Its Secretary General, Mr Jeyaretnam, faints and has to be rushed to hospital. PAP and the Government are thrown into disarray and the citizens are confused and anxious. The country is infused with a sense of uncertainty. Though PAP still retains all the other seats that they previously had, they have to appoint a new Prime Minister and it looks like the popular Mr Tharman may take over. A wide review of PAP policies follows.

When reality strikes

As I awaken next Saturday morning, in one way or another, it's going to be a nightmare for some people somewhere.

PERSONAL ADVISORY FOR GE2015 POLITICIANS

As a political neutral, I have observed a few things about election candidates. One of the things is that some seem to be clueless as to how they can present themselves better and maximize their positive impact on voters.

Let me give some personal advice.

LET'S HAVE MORE OF THESE:

1. Tell us about your own personal and political beliefs and why you hold them. Tell us why you join your political party and how your personal philosophy is consistent with your party's political doctrines, past policies and practices.

2. Tell us your opinions on the areas where there is room for improvement in Singapore. Give an analysis of the problem areas, their possible causes and your unique solutions.

3. Tell us your special qualities that can help you represent the people's best interests and add value to the political landscape in Singapore.

4. Tell us that you want to be in Parliament to work for ALL Singaporeans, not just your political supporters, your own racial group, your own gender, your own generation or your own niche interest group.

5. Always occupy the moral high ground.

LET'S HAVE LESS OF THESE:

1. Please do not point at or wag your index finger while talking to voters. It gives the impression that you are arrogant or condescending. Also, do not pump your fist(s) over your head too many times as it spells the message that you are likely to be aggressive and uncompromising. If you had not already realized, politics is the art of negotiation and compromise; and the tenacious and the stubborn have no place in politics. If you want, wave in a friendly manner.

2. Do not sling mud or assassinate your opponent's character. Not only will you bring discredit to yourself, your voters will read that as a sign that you are insecure and lacking in substance.

3. Even if you are the incumbent, do not rest on your laurels or talk about past glories. Do not oversell your academic or professional credentials as they are irrelevant to your potential as a good politician. In politics, everyone is a novice and you should show that you are always humble and ready to learn.

4. If you had contested before and lost in an SMC, make sure you contest in the same constituency again. If you now go to another SMC, people will think that you are an opportunist, just trying your luck. If worse, now you hide in a GRC, voters will think that you are insistent on entering Parliament despite considering yourself unworthy of it.

5. Even if you are at your wit's end, do not threaten your opponents with law suits or threaten your voters with deprivation of services.

I hope the above advice will make political campaigning more civil and productive.