THE "UNEXPECTED" LANDSLIDE VICTORY OF THE PAP
A result that surprised and puzzled many analysts, but here's why!
Many observers have attributed last night's less-than-expected big PAP turnaround in its aggregated popular vote from 60.1 to 69.9%, a sudden rise of 9.8%, to a variety of reasons:
(1) Singaporeans now fully understand the significance of elections and have come to realize that only the PAP holds the key to future prosperity;
(2) Singaporeans endorse PAP's policies and approve of the Government's performance over the last 4 years in tackling the issues that arose in 2011;
(3) A softening of PAP politics reflected in a change in PAP's outreach strategy into one that is more decentralized, more consultative and less arrogant; one that speaks from the heart rather than from the head; and one that features policies consciously shifting to the left.
(4) WP's performance over the last 4 years had been less than impressive and the widely publicised AHPETC lapses in accounting and governance must have had some effect;
(5) The feel-good factor in the SG50 celebrations this year;
(6) The sympathy factor in the recent demise of our founding father, Mr Lee Kuan Yew;
(7) Voters share PAP's anxiety about our leadership renewal;
(8) Voters voting for PAP by default because of fear of too big a swing to the immature opposition;
(9) Voters worried about the impending gloomy and uncertain global outlook adopt a 'flight to safety' mentality;
(10) The Singaporean voter is intellectually lazy and is not concerned about his rights, social issues like CPF, transport and rich-poor divide; or political issues like accountability, transparency and Parliamentary check and balance. He seems ready to surrender his political rights to paternalistic, political experts who can make all the right decisions for him and his country.
In my view, none of the above reasons fully and logically explains the widespread, island-wide swing towards the PAP. It must be observed that the reason behind it has a generalised and consistent effect on voting behaviour, except that the strength of the WP was able to resist the trend to some degree.
THE ANSWER - FILIAL PIETY
The clue here is that the answer is related to a very significant, one-off event.
Imagine a dying father, who was an expert painter, telling his child to forever preserve and never remove his favourite masterpiece that he had hung in his own house. Though the child may not be interested in painting himself and do not fully appreciate the beauty of that piece of painting on the wall, he readily promised to always treasure that piece of work.
Because of the unique history of Singapore, the relationship between Mr Lee Kuan Yew and the people of Singapore is not one between a leader and a citizenry; but more like a father and a child. So, such a paternalistic relationship is not one that is imposed on the people; but a natural state where both grew into. The dying father in the story is, of course, Mr Lee Kuan Yew; the child is the people of Singapore; and the painting is the PAP. Most people appreciate the fact that Mr Lee brought Singapore from 3rd to 1st world in fifty years, but people forget that the vehicle that he used to do it with was the PAP. PAP is his masterpiece and as long as it is in good shape, Singapore will be in good shape.
In an Asian society like Singapore, a good child's main duty to his father is filial piety, and it is with filial piety that subconsciously, almost the whole society voted to preserve his legacy, especially shortly after his passing. The effect may be strong enough to suppress present grievances and political differences. Just recall the unprecedented outpouring from people of all political stripes during Mr. Lee's wake and funeral.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
So, underlying the unexpected PAP landslide win is a deep collective psychological phenomenon that may not last forever. Indeed, such a fortuitous favour for the PAP may just be a one-off. Come next GE in 2019-2020, the effect may have worn off. So, the PAP must still work hard and the opposition should not feel too disheartened because the trend of the "new normal", though temporarily suppressed, may still be on.
Finial piety?! Ha! That's refreshing.
ReplyDeleteHere's another: with LHL posters all over the country, many intellectually-bochap folks may have mistakenly thought that LHL was running in their area and voted for him thus causing the swing.
There is no reason to believe that the Prime Minister is especially popular among the ignorant and the intellectually-challenged.
DeleteDan,
Deleteyou are absolutely right in your assessment, though there are a lot of physiological, phycological and historical other factors.
There is also the point if you really look at the majority population in Singaporeans and where their forefathers hail from, objectively speaking, a matter of fact, LKY has always favored his ruler-ship to that of China, though not entirely, having been educated in England, he favored certain ideas and combined them and issued the leadership style for the rest to follow.
Hence you can see that most Singaporeans take the lazy approach to politics that the government should provide direction for their well being. This is totally opposite of other democratic govts where people are politically active and engage and collaborate with civic and other think tank institutions formulate their future plans and then elect a govt to carry out their plans and take responsibility and vote the govt out if they don't effectively perform.
Thus this is the fundamental problem with why Singapore is Singapore.
We wrongly assume for example that the majority in China wants democracy it's hardly so, if that was the case, the people could effect a change pretty easily as they have the population strength.
Dan,
Deleteyou are absolutely right in your assessment, though there are a lot of physiological, phycological and historical other factors.
There is also the point if you really look at the majority population in Singaporeans and where their forefathers hail from, objectively speaking, a matter of fact, LKY has always favored his ruler-ship to that of China, though not entirely, having been educated in England, he favored certain ideas and combined them and issued the leadership style for the rest to follow.
Hence you can see that most Singaporeans take the lazy approach to politics that the government should provide direction for their well being. This is totally opposite of other democratic govts where people are politically active and engage and collaborate with civic and other think tank institutions formulate their future plans and then elect a govt to carry out their plans and take responsibility and vote the govt out if they don't effectively perform.
Thus this is the fundamental problem with why Singapore is Singapore.
We wrongly assume for example that the majority in China wants democracy it's hardly so, if that was the case, the people could effect a change pretty easily as they have the population strength.
Dear Hari,
DeleteThe sad truth is that the vast majority of voters are ill-informed, not interested and lack intellectual depth and political knowledge to properly understand issues and make a proper judgement of political candidates. Yet, the democratic process demands a level of political competence that they do not possess. That's why most defer to politicians to tell them what to do or to make decisions for them.
So, the outcome of the election is not a statement about the strength of the PAP or the weakness of the opposition, but rather about the degree of political maturity of voters.
Please read my earlier post I wrote 2 weeks ago:
OVERTURNING THE GENERAL ELECTION TORTOISE
AND LOOKING AT ITS HIDDEN UNDERBELLY
http://singaporedialectic.blogspot.sg/2015/08/overturning-general-election-tortoise.html?m=1