WHAT IS THE REAL RISK OF DYING IN A PLANE CRASH?

As we mourn the victims of the ill-fated MH370, let's re-examine the real mortal risk of flying.

If you look at the following statistics:

*Odds of being on an airline flight which results in at least one fatality with 78 major world airlines:

1 in 3.4 million.

*Odds of being killed on a single airline flight with 78 major world airlines:

1 in 4.7 million.

*Source: OAG Aviation & PlaneCrashInfo.com accident database, 20 years of data (1993 - 2012).

It seems silly to fear flying, but if you were a passenger on MH370, on hindsight, your odds of dying in a plane crash was 1 in 1, that is, 100%. So, there is a paradox in drawing conclusions from the general to apply to the particular.

I'm highly suspicious of official statistics. The odds of 1 in 4.7 million is only valid if you are a passenger of 4.7 million flights. If you are a passenger of only 1 flight, your odds of dying is either 0 in 1 or 1 in 1.

So, I think the statistic of 1 in 4.7 million is a huge lie. The historical risk of any 1 passenger dying in any flight anywhere in the world over the last 20 years is, yes, 1 in 4.7 million. But you are you. You are not any passenger in the world. That statistic is not meaningful if, while you are boarding your plane you are wondering whether this trip is going to be your last or not. If the odds of 1 in 4.7 million is correct, your chance of dying on any plane trip is only 0.00002128%, which is minuscule or as good as zero. So, no one should ever die from plane crashes at all! Yet, people in the thousands did perish while flying. What can account for this jump from 0.00002128% to 100% when you board ill-fated planes?

Let's look at it my way.

Consider this very rough approximation: if we take an average 50 year-old passenger taking his 60th flight of his life (2 flights a year since age 20), he can either survive or die during this trip. So, empirically, if his plane crashes and he dies, his risk was factually 1 in 60 which is a highly significant 1.67%.

If really such statistics existed: what is the average number of flights real air crash victims had taken before they died?  That is the real odds of dying while flying (for them)! I bet it is not far from 1 in 60. 

Of course, this only applies to those who are 'fated' to die in an air crash. The problem is, you can't know beforehand whether you are so fated or not. But, my point is, the odds for dying in an air crash is far higher than the oft-quoted 1 in 4.7 million figure!

It is good to remember what you read here when you are planning your next holiday overseas.