DOES THE BUKIT BATOK BY-ELECTION REALLY MATTER?
Why the PAP will keep winning and the opposition keep losing

Even if Bukit Batok falls to SDP on the 7th of May, there will still be no change in the political landscape. I can bet you that PAP will again win by a landslide in the next general election and power will remain overwhelmingly with the PAP.

This is NOT because Singapore is too small for more than one political party. It is NOT because the late Mr Lee Kuan was such a massive  juggernaut of a personality that he would forever cast a shadow on local politics. It is NOT because the PAP has done such a great job that Singaporeans could find no reason to change their ruler. It is also NOT because the opposition forces are small, weak and divided.

I have a simple answer to explain  the inexorable dominance of the PAP over the last 51 years. I call it my Business Theory of Singapore Politics.

BUSINESS THEORY OF SINGAPORE POLITICS

My contention is that winning at elections to gain political power is the same as marketing a product successfully to make a sale. So, PAP and Opposition politics are like competitor products in a specific market; and voters are like fickle customers looking out to satisfy their needs and wants.

Whether knowingly or not, PAP has mastered the art of political marketing. In short, they know how their customers (voters) think and what they want, they know the strengths and weaknesses of their competitors (opposition politicians), they understand the market (how politics work), they have a unique selling proposition (their winning formula), they create publicity effectively (control of the mass media), they are consistent (they never change), they are focused (not distracted by truth or morals) and they build credibility (great track record of winning elections and achieving prosperity). Their political product was developed based on known demand.  So, is it any surprise that they are so successful? No. They know right where the demand is and they go after it.

On the other hand, the opposition does not have a coherent marketing strategy. They developed what they suspect is a good political product. They hope that people will one day discover how good their product is. So, while waiting for demand to increase, they spend most of their time engineering it. They keep telling customers (voters) how bad the competitor's product is, but forget to make efforts to understand their customers' (voters') needs and their dislike for change. So, the opposition has it upside down.

There is another factor at play. PAP has an inherent advantage in having an existing monopoly of the market and is the authority controlling the rules of market transactions (redrawing of constituencies, declaring changes in SMC or GRC status, timing election date, etc). The high barriers of entry into the political game consisting of high costs, the need for manpower resources and grassroots support add another layer of advantage to the PAP political machine.

The essential difference between them is that PAP came up with its product after understanding the needs and nature of the voters; whereas the Opposition has a product for which it tries to create demand. Opposition politics is a product in search of a market, so they put themselves out there and then pray that they win. If they don't win, they just complain about their difficulties, tries to talk about ethics and morality and play the victim.

That's why it is no surprise that PAP won 70% of the votes in the 2015 General Elections while opposition supporters call the 70% idiots and continue to be puzzled by the results. As long as the Opposition are still scratching their heads, they will get nowhere.